SPY Volatility History, 1993–2026
Every complete peak-to-trough decline of at least 10%, plus the pattern behind all daily closing moves of at least 5% through the latest completed session on August 19, 2026.
Major episodes
15
Peak-to-trough close decline ≥10%
Extreme trading days
44
22 gains / 22 losses with |return| ≥5%
Largest drawdown
-56.47%
2007–2009 global financial crisis
Fastest bottom
23 sessions
COVID shock, down 34.10%
Bottom line: SPY's largest declines came from credit/liquidity crises, bubble-and-recession cycles, rate-driven valuation resets, and abrupt policy changes. Extreme gains and losses cluster together: 2008–2009 and 2020 account for 30 of 44 extreme trading days, about 68% of the total.
All 15 Major Peak-to-Trough Episodes
| Episode | Peak | Trough | Drawdown | Sessions to trough | Recovered | Recovery sessions | Main cause |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 rate reset | 1997-02-18 | 1997-04-11 | -10.38% | 37 | 1997-05-05 | 16 | Fed tightening, rising bond yields, valuation compression. |
| Asian financial crisis | 1997-10-07 | 1997-10-27 | -11.20% | 14 | 1997-12-05 | 28 | Currency and banking contagion across Asia. |
| Russia / LTCM | 1998-07-20 | 1998-08-31 | -19.03% | 30 | 1998-11-23 | 59 | Russian default, LTCM leverage, global liquidity stress. |
| 1999 tightening | 1999-07-16 | 1999-10-15 | -11.94% | 64 | 1999-11-18 | 24 | Fed tightening and higher long yields hit rich valuations. |
| Dot-com bust | 2000-03-24 | 2002-10-09 | -49.14% | 637 | 2007-06-01 | 1,168 | Tech bubble collapse, recession, 9/11, and accounting scandals. |
| Global financial crisis | 2007-10-09 | 2009-03-09 | -56.47% | 355 | 2013-03-14 | 1,011 | Housing and subprime collapse, bank deleveraging, Lehman, frozen credit. |
| Euro debt / flash crash | 2010-04-23 | 2010-07-02 | -16.10% | 49 | 2010-11-04 | 87 | Greek debt contagion, growth fears, and the May 6 flash crash. |
| US downgrade / euro debt | 2011-04-29 | 2011-10-03 | -19.42% | 108 | 2012-02-21 | 96 | US debt-ceiling crisis and downgrade; European sovereign and bank stress. |
| China / oil shock | 2015-05-21 | 2016-02-11 | -14.35% | 183 | 2016-07-12 | 104 | China growth and currency fears, collapsing oil, manufacturing slowdown. |
| Volatility shock | 2018-01-26 | 2018-04-02 | -10.16% | 44 | 2018-08-24 | 102 | Inflation/rate fears and forced unwinds of short-volatility trades. |
| 2018 Q4 selloff | 2018-09-20 | 2018-12-24 | -20.18% | 65 | 2019-04-29 | 85 | Fed tightening, US–China trade tensions, and slowing global growth. |
| COVID crash | 2020-02-19 | 2020-03-23 | -34.10% | 23 | 2020-08-18 | 103 | Global shutdowns and a liquidity rush, followed by rapid policy support. |
| Inflation / hikes / war | 2022-01-03 | 2022-10-12 | -25.36% | 195 | 2024-01-19 | 318 | High inflation, aggressive Fed hikes, Ukraine war, valuation reset. |
| Long-yield shock | 2023-07-31 | 2023-10-27 | -10.29% | 63 | 2023-12-01 | 24 | A jump in long Treasury yields and “higher for longer” pricing. |
| Tariff shock | 2025-02-19 | 2025-04-08 | -19.00% | 34 | 2025-06-27 | 55 | Broad reciprocal-tariff announcement, trade-war and recession fears, then a policy pause. |
Recovery sessions run from the trading day after the trough through the first close at or above the prior peak; sessions to trough measure the peak-to-trough interval. Returns use unadjusted SPY closing prices, so cash distributions are excluded. Adjacent declines are one episode until the old high is recovered.
Can Good News Drive a Rally Without a Prior Crash?
Yes—but distinguish a one-day surge from a sustained bull market. Under the strict ≥5% daily threshold, nearly all 22 extreme up days occurred inside crisis or sharp-selloff windows. The only one outside the 15 formal ≥10% drawdowns was January 7, 2000 (SPY +5.81%), and even that followed a short technology-stock rout. Direct catalysts included bargain buying, confidence that one company's bad news was not sector-wide, and fading concern about a 50-basis-point rate hike; it still was not a calm-market liftoff. Bullish repricing driven directly by policy, earnings, and improving valuations usually unfolds over months rather than in one +5% session.
| Bull year | SPY price return | Maximum drawdown | Main driver—not recovery from a ≥10% decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | +34.95% | -3.19% | Falling inflation, a soft landing, a turn toward Fed easing, and lower bond yields. |
| 2013 | +29.69% | -6.05% | An improving economic outlook, earnings growth, and highly accommodative monetary policy. |
| 2017 | +19.38% | -3.03% | Synchronized global growth, stronger earnings, and US tax-cut expectations and enactment. |
| 2024 | +23.30% | -8.41% | Large-cap technology earnings, the AI investment boom, and soft-landing expectations. |
Annual gains and maximum intra-year drawdowns also use unadjusted closes. These are representative strong years that did not first suffer and recover from a 10% decline; they show that earnings, rates, and policy can drive sustained upside directly.
The Largest Extreme Days
Largest gains
- 2008-10-13: +14.52% — bank guarantees, rescue measures, short covering
- 2008-10-28: +11.69% — easing and rescue expectations
- 2025-04-09: +10.50% — 90-day pause for most reciprocal tariffs
- 2020-03-24: +9.06% — Fed support and fiscal-stimulus expectations
- 2020-03-13: +8.55% — emergency response and oversold rebound
Largest losses
- 2020-03-16: -10.94% — shutdown and liquidity panic
- 2008-10-15: -9.84% — recession data and forced deleveraging
- 2020-03-12: -9.57% — travel restrictions and global pandemic repricing
- 2008-12-01: -8.86% — recession confirmation and weak manufacturing
- 2008-09-29: -7.84% — House rejection of the first rescue bill
Critical lesson: after SPY rose 14.52% on October 13, 2008, it still fell to a final low in March 2009. A historic rally is evidence of an extreme-volatility regime, not proof that the bear market is over.
Method, Sources, and Limits
- The sample contains 8,446 completed SPY sessions from January 29, 1993 through August 19, 2026. Thresholds are complete drawdowns ≥10% and close-to-close daily moves with absolute return ≥5%.
- Prices use a public archive of Yahoo Finance daily data; causal summaries were cross-checked against official histories. ETF price returns differ from S&P 500 index points and total returns.
- State Street: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
- Federal Reserve History: Asian Financial Crisis · Near Failure of LTCM
- Federal Reserve History: Great Recession · Federal Reserve: June 2020 Monetary Policy Report
- Federal Reserve: July 1995 easing · 2013 Monetary Policy Report · 2017 Monetary Policy Report
- Federal Reserve: 2024 market and economic backdrop · Washington Post: January 7, 2000 surprise rally
- Federal Reserve: June 2022 Monetary Policy Report · White House: 2025 reciprocal tariff announcement
This is historical education, not personalized investment advice. Event attribution is inherently multi-causal and does not imply one headline fully explains a trading day.